On track, sort of

The fatal accident rate for scheduled airline operations in 2001 suggests that the industry may well achieve its goal of an 80 percent reduction over a 10-year period ending in 2007 (see ASW, March 17, 1997). However, if the number of fatalities shapes public perceptions, 2001 comes across as the worst year since 1982, the first year in the tables produced annually by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). The recently published tables covering 2001 show that 531 people were killed in operations involving scheduled carriers. About half were killed in the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. For U.S. carriers, the worst previous year was 1996, when 342 people were killed (ValuJet 592 and TWA 800 accidents dominated). By this measure, the death toll was more than 50 percent higher in 2001, and was higher than at any time since the NTSB's base year of 1982.

However, the NTSB strips out losses from terrorism when it calculates fatal accident rates, and by this measure the rates show a downward trend.

First, a brief discussion of the goal's derivation.

The White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security final report, dated Feb. 12, 1997, stated, "Government and industry should establish a national goal to reduce the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of five within ten years and conduct safety research to support that goal."

The National Civil Aviation Review Commission concurred with that goal in its December 1997 report, "Avoiding Aviation Gridlock & Reducing the Accident Rate."

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) defined and quantified the goal for commercial airlines as "reducing the commercial airline (including scheduled Part 135 aircraft with fewer than 10 seats) accident rate per 100,000 departures by 80 percent in the ten year period ending September 30, 2007." In addition, commercial airlines were to "reduce" overall accident rates. The FAA established Fiscal Year (FY) 1994-1996 accidents as the baseline for the official 80 percent rate reduction goals, including all Scheduled U.S. Federal Aviation Regulations [FARs] Part 135 operations. On March 20, 1997, all FARs Part 135 aircraft with 10-29 seats were required to conduct scheduled service under FARS Part 121.

While the goal measures departures, a four-way look including accident rates by time and distance, and the absolute number of deaths, provides a more granulated picture. The 10-year goal does not include reducing the number killed by 80 percent and is shown in the table for comparative purposes only. The NTSB maintains its statistical tables on a calendar year basis, while the 80 percent reduction goal is calculated on a fiscal year basis. However, the NTSB's numbers provide a good measure of the trends.

A word of caution - the traveling public and the media do not appear to make a great distinction between lapses in safety or security. A simple content analysis of letters to the editor and news stories shows that "safety" is the word often used to describe a "security" problem. Thus, the practice of stripping out losses resulting from inadequate security can lead to a perception inside the industry of "progress" that is not shared by the public at large.

A subordinate goal is to reduce the fatal accident rate in the general aviation (GA) community by 50 percent. Barring an upward spike, that goal may be achieved. The three-year average ending in 1996 was 1.63 fatal accidents per 100,000 flight hours. A 27 percent reduction had been achieved, as measured by the three-year average ending in 2001, with a rate of 1.18. The goal is a rate of 0.81 by 2007.